El Niño, Climate Resilience, and the Future of Farming:Why Traditional Varieties Matter More Than Ever

B. Anil Kumar | Program Manager, CYDA

Agriculture is entering a period of increasing uncertainty. Across farming communities, rainfall patterns are becoming less predictable, temperatures are rising, and farmers are facing greater pressure from drought, heat and changing crop conditions. El Niño is one part of this wider climate system. Its relevance to agriculture lies in the way ocean–atmosphere changes can influence rainfall and temperature patterns, including the Indian monsoon.¹

For farmers, this is not simply a question of weather. It affects when to sow, what to plant, how much water a crop may require, how much farmers spend on inputs, and how well a farm can recover when conditions change suddenly. The recent discussion around drought conditions in Andhra Pradesh brings this challenge closer to home. In 2023–24, Andhra Pradesh recorded average rainfall of 802.6 mm against a normal 975.3 mm, a deficit of 17.7%; 13 districts recorded deficient rainfall during the year.²

At CYDA, we see climate resilience as more than a response to a single drought. It requires strengthening agricultural biodiversity, local seed systems, soil health, diversified farming and farmer knowledge, while enabling young people to connect traditional practices with useful modern technologies.

Understanding El Niño: A Brief Background

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally recurring ocean–atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific. During an El Niño event, sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm and the normal trade-wind and atmospheric circulation patterns change. ENSO events occur irregularly, on average every two to seven years, and individual El Niño episodes typically last around nine to twelve months.¹

The effects are not identical in every country or every year. El Niño changes the probability of particular rainfall and temperature patterns rather than determining the weather in a single location. For India, its relationship with the southwest monsoon is well established but is not absolute; other oceanic and atmospheric conditions also influence monsoon performance. IMD records, for example, show that during the 2023 monsoon, rainfall was 94% of the long-period average, with a particularly weak August and a below-normal second half of the season.³

This distinction matters for farmers. El Niño should not be presented as the sole cause of drought. Rather, it is one factor that can increase climate variability and expose weaknesses in farming systems that depend on predictable rainfall or high water availability.

Why Farmers Are Becoming More Vulnerable

Farm vulnerability increases when production depends heavily on a single crop, a narrow set of varieties, assured irrigation or high external inputs. When rainfall is delayed or uneven, water-intensive crops can face stress at critical stages of growth. Farmers may then have to spend more on irrigation, re-sowing or crop protection, while also facing uncertainty in yields and income.

The scale of climate-related agricultural risk is significant. The IPCC’s 2022 Sixth Assessment Report notes that drought, heat and other climate stresses are already reducing crop and livestock productivity in many regions and identifies rainfed agricultural systems and small-scale producers among those particularly exposed. It also reports an estimated global loss of around 9–10% of total cereal production associated with droughts and other weather extremes.⁴

Andhra Pradesh provides a concrete illustration of how rainfall variability can translate into agricultural pressure. The state’s 2023–24 Socio-Economic Survey recorded a 17.7% annual rainfall deficit, while deficient rainfall was reported in 13 districts.² In Prakasam district during the 2023 kharif season, local agriculture officials reported that about 49,280 hectares of crops were at risk during a prolonged dry spell.⁵ These figures do not mean that every farmer experiences the same level of risk, but they show how quickly rainfall variability can become a production concern.

This makes resilience important at farm level: not only producing more during a good season, but maintaining options when conditions become difficult.

Traditional Varieties: A Resource for Climate Resilience

Traditional or indigenous seeds are the result of generations of farmer selection, exchange and adaptation to local growing conditions. Their value lies not simply in being ‘old’ varieties, but in the genetic diversity and local knowledge they represent.

Some traditional varieties may have useful characteristics such as shorter duration, tolerance to local stresses, suitability to low-input conditions or particular nutritional and fodder qualities. However, it would be misleading to assume that every traditional variety is automatically drought- or heat-resistant. Performance depends on the crop, variety, location, season and management. The stronger argument for conserving traditional varieties is that genetic diversity gives farmers and researchers more options for future adaptation.⁶

FAO has emphasized that access to diverse, quality seed is important for resilient food systems and that farmers themselves play an important role in conserving and developing crop diversity.⁶ In India, FAO’s work on community-managed seed systems has specifically highlighted local landraces and farmers’ varieties as resources adapted to local conditions and relevant to climate adaptation.⁷

Seed conservation therefore needs to move beyond storage alone. Community seed banks, farmer-to-farmer exchange, documentation of local varieties, participatory selection and local seed production can keep useful genetic resources in active use.

From Seed Diversity to Diversified Farming

Traditional varieties are most useful when they are part of a broader resilient farming system. Through agroecology initiatives, CYDA has focused on natural farming and diversified production including paddy, vegetables, horticulture, fodder and green manuring. Diversification can spread production risk and provide different sources of food, fodder and income.

Soil health is equally important. Practices that support soil organic matter, nutrient cycling and biological activity can improve the soil’s ability to retain moisture and support crops under stress. Green manuring, crop diversity and reduced dependence on costly external inputs can complement locally adapted seed varieties.

This is not a choice between traditional knowledge and modern science. Farmers’ understanding of local soils, seeds and seasonal conditions can be combined with scientific information on weather, soil management, crop planning and pest management.

What the Andhra Pradesh Experience Tells Us

The drought-related experience in Andhra Pradesh shows why preparedness needs to begin before a crop comes under severe stress. When rainfall is uncertain, farmers need timely weather information, access to suitable seed, crop choices that match available water, and practices that conserve soil moisture.

The state’s 2023–24 data also show why a single statewide picture can hide local differences: while some districts received normal rainfall, 13 districts were classified as deficient.² Climate resilience therefore needs to be locally planned rather than treated as one uniform package.

For rainfed and vulnerable farming communities, the combination of crop diversity, traditional varieties, soil-health practices, community seed systems and climate information can create a wider set of choices. That is the practical connection between biodiversity and resilience.

Youth: Connecting Traditional Knowledge with Modern Technology

Young farmers can become a bridge between traditional knowledge and new tools. Mobile weather advisories, GIS and remote sensing, digital marketplaces, AI-supported agricultural advisories, drones and precision irrigation can support better decisions when used appropriately.

At the same time, youth can document traditional varieties, map local biodiversity, support community seed banks and help farmers access markets and information. Technology should strengthen farmer knowledge rather than replace it.

A CYDA Perspective

At CYDA, the focus is on connecting climate resilience with agroecology, biodiversity and farmer-led solutions. Traditional varieties should not be treated simply as a return to the past. They are part of the genetic diversity and accumulated knowledge that can contribute to future adaptation.

The way forward is to strengthen local seed systems, promote diversified and soil-friendly farming, use climate information in crop planning, and create opportunities for young farmers to combine traditional knowledge with modern technology. This approach can reduce dependence on a narrow set of crops and inputs while keeping more adaptation options open for farming communities.

Conclusion

El Niño and wider climate variability remind us that resilience has to be built before a climatic shock reaches the farm. Traditional varieties are one part of that resilience because they carry genetic diversity and knowledge developed through generations.

The future of climate-resilient agriculture is not a choice between the past and the future. It is about bringing the strengths of both together—traditional seed knowledge with scientific research, natural and regenerative practices with appropriate technology, and farmer experience with reliable climate information. By strengthening these connections, communities can be better prepared for drought, heat and uncertain rainfall.

References

1. IPCC (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, Chapter 5, Food, Fibre and Other Ecosystem Products; Chapter 4, Water.

2. India Meteorological Department (2024). Annual Report 2023, including the observed 2023 southwest monsoon and El Niño conditions.

3. India Meteorological Department. El Niño–Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) historical data and analysis.

4. Government of Andhra Pradesh (2024). Socio-Economic Survey 2023–24.

5. New Indian Express (2023). “Rainfall deficit leaves Andhra Pradesh farmers in dire straits,” reporting Prakasam Agriculture Department crop-risk assessment.

6. FAO (2023). Farmer Seed Systems: A Critical Contribution to Food Sovereignty and Farmers’ Rights.

7. FAO India (2023–2025). Support for quality seed of local landraces/farmers’ varieties through community-managed seed systems in Odisha and other rainfed areas.

8. WASSAN / RRA Network (2022). National Workshop on Seed Systems for Climate Resilient Rainfed Agriculture.

9. UNCCD (2018). Drought Resilience, Adaptation and Management Policy (DRAMP) Framework.

Footnotes

1. NOAA, ENSO Information / ENSO 101 (accessed 2026): El Niño and La Niña occur irregularly, averaging every 2–7 years; El Niño typically lasts 9–12 months. The regional effects vary from event to event.

2. Government of Andhra Pradesh, Socio-Economic Survey 2023–24: average rainfall 802.6 mm versus normal 975.3 mm; 17.7% deficit; 13 districts recorded deficient rainfall.

3. India Meteorological Department, Annual Report 2023: southwest monsoon rainfall was 94% of LPA; August rainfall was 64% of LPA; August–September rainfall was 83% of LPA; El Niño strengthened from weak to moderate during August–September.

4. IPCC (2022), AR6 WGII: climate-driven drought and heat affect agricultural productivity; rainfed systems and small-scale producers are particularly exposed. The report cites an estimated 9–10% global cereal-production loss associated with droughts and other weather extremes.

5. Prakasam Agriculture Department assessment reported by The New Indian Express, 3 November 2023: approximately 49.28 thousand hectares of crops were considered at risk during a prolonged dry spell.

6. FAO (2023), Farmer Seed Systems report: farmer seed systems face climate-related challenges and farmer-led seed systems can contribute to resilient food systems.

7. FAO India project page: local landraces/farmers’ varieties are described as nutritionally rich and adapted to local climate, with community-managed seed systems being developed in Odisha and other rainfed areas.