Dr. Kuldeepsingh Rajput
India’s “youth bulge” represents a pivotal demographic window, positioning the country for significant socio-economic advancement and a historically advantageous stage of its demographic transition. It is critical to realise that the present ‘demographic dividend’ has reached its extremum and needs to be reaped before it is too late.
Against this backdrop, the release of the draft National Youth Policy (NYP) 2021 by the NDA Government in April 2022 was a much-awaited policy draft and an essential step and crucial development. This draft outlines a ten-year vision for youth development in India, aiming to be achieved by 2030. It aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals and seeks to “unlock the potential of youth to advance India” by focusing on key areas such as education, employment and entrepreneurship, youth leadership and development, health, fitness and sports, and social justice. The draft NYP (2021) serves as a comprehensive framework to guide future youth development programs and initiatives in India.
Unfortunately, the draft NYP is still waiting for its convergence into the national-level policy and further implementation. This delay could negatively and disproportionately impact the youth, potentially leading to significant long-term social, economic, and political consequences. It also reflects a lack of proactive engagement by the government regarding the rights and development of its young citizens. Hence, the prompt implementation of the NYP (2021) should be a top priority for the current NDA government, as it is essential for numerous reasons.
The first and foremost challenge is the changing demographic structure in India. ILO (2021, 2024) stated that the youth share as a percentage of the population in India has started to decline. The TGPP projection estimates that the youth population will drop from 371.4 million in 2021 to 345.5 million by 2036. This raises a critical question: How will we meet the diverse needs of an ageing population? With timely planning and strategic investments in today’s youth, the future can be managed more effectively.
Another concern is the growing number of idle, discouraged youth, i.e. NEET Youth (Youth not in Education, Employment and Training) in India. According to ILO (2021), 34.2 % of youth in India are classified as NEET, while the OECD estimates it as 30.83 %, almost three times higher than China (11%). The draft NYP (2021) identifies the NEET youth and envisions supporting them through education. However, the challenges of NEET youth are much more extensive due to their enormous numbers and complexity as they are not a homogeneous category. The labour force share of youth in India is lower than their population share, and it is declining over time due to the low education quality, skills mismatch, exploitative nature of the unorganised sector, precarious jobs, and structural constraints. Consequently, joblessness is increasing, and many youths remain out of the purview of employment. The ILO (2021) estimates that 83.3 % of the total unemployed in India are from the youth cohort.
The Multiple Indicator Survey report (NSS 78th round) published in March 2023 shows that 51.7 % of young women fall under the NEET category while only 15.4% are young men. Hence, another serious concern is the gender skew among the NEET youth in India. The involvement of young girls in education is also low. The reason for their disengagement lies in the deeply-rooted patriarchal structure and values which limit their maximum resources of development, and the gendered labour market, which pushes them to the further fringes. The COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown have deepened the existing socio-economic inequalities and aggravated vulnerable employment. Against this backdrop, the delay in implementation of the NYP (2021) could exacerbate the challenges of NEET youth, especially young and adolescent NEET girls. Therefore, the NYP (2021) must align with the National Education Policy (2020). Market-based skill education and digital literacy are essential to integrate NEET youth at different levels. Therefore, the present Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY) can play a crucial role in skilling youth. However, one needs to examine the efficacy of PMKVY and its actual employment generation for certified skilled youth.
A small segment of the youth is privileged due to their socio-cultural and economic capital. However, a considerable number of youths belong to socially or economically disadvantaged and diverse sections. They often encounter identity-based discrimination, stereotyping, exclusion, and violence across various levels, which negatively affects their access to education, employment opportunities, and civic engagement. Especially the migrant youth, SC, Nomadic-Denotified communities, Tribal and Muslim minority youth face unique and severe challenges. Data exclusion is prevalent in the case of some disadvantaged youth. For instance, young migrant workers engaged in the informal sectors remain undocumented due to a lack of identity proof and their migratory work. Hence, a reliable and disaggregated database is essential for their mainstreaming. The draft NYP (2021) acknowledges the need for special efforts to ensure social justice for marginalised and vulnerable youth and envisions new initiatives to deliver social justice and provide safe spaces, knowledge, and support services. However, a policy directive cannot protect the social fabric and justice structure for youth. It needs a robust mechanism stemming from the implementation of the NYP (2021).
The All India Survey on Higher Education (AISHE) 2014-15 and 2019-20 data indicate that the total enrollment in higher education in India has increased. However, the enrolment of disadvantaged youth is below their population proportion, and the enrolment increase in 2019 is not significant. Further, most disadvantaged students are enrolled in traditional programmes such as Bachelor of Arts, Commerce, and Science. Without social, cultural, and academic capital, upward mobility in higher education is extremely challenging and exhausting for disadvantaged youth. They do not have adequate career guidance and support systems from their families, communities, schools, or colleges, and therefore, according to Namala (2017), the majority of the SC, ST and Muslim minority, or other disadvantaged youth are enrolled in the BA programme. Poor educational enrolment and lack of quality education restrict their occupational mobility. Azim Premji University (2023), in their study, found that socially disadvantaged caste entrepreneurs are hard to find; for SCs and STs, the share in ownership of enterprises is significantly lower than their share in the workforce, specifying that they are consistently disadvantaged in entrepreneurship (State of Working India 2023). To this extent, the cycle of deprivation and social exclusion brings tangible and intangible long-term impacts to the disadvantaged youth. Policy implementation is essential for the meaningful inclusion of these youth groups.
India’s aim of becoming a US$5 trillion economy and ‘Vishwa Guru’ cannot be achieved without giving due importance to young citizens, youth development and human capital formation. It is crucial to recognize the aspirations and needs of the youth and implement a well-structured action plan through the NYP (2021). Failure to do so could result in missing a significant opportunity, turning the demographic dividend into a demographic disaster. The
The author is a CEO & Founder Director at RUBAL Foundation. www.rubalfoundation.org (RUBAL Foundation is deeply committed to uplifting urban and rural-tribal migrants, unorganised workers and marginalized communities)
